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Blackjack martingale calculator: goal or table limit first?
Pick a betting system, a bankroll, a win goal and the table limit. Thousands of sessions are played round by round with real blackjack results for the rules you choose.
Inputs
The system "breaks" when it asks for a bet above the table maximum or above the money you have left. Whatever the system, the average result is close to the house edge times the amount bet.
Same session, other systems
| System | Reach goal | Breaks first | Average result | Amount bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 72.3% | 27.7% | −6.89 | 968 |
| 1-3-2-6 | 78.8% | 21.2% | −35.98 | 6,002 |
| Flat bets | 74.4% | 25.6% | −103.90 | 16,700 |
Simulated: 10,000 sessions per system; the same inputs always give the same numbers. Each round's result – including lost doubles and splits – is drawn from our own simulation of 1,000,000,000 rounds for these rules, played by the chart. Amounts bet are first bets. Bets and goals are only an example, not a suggestion.
Why martingale feels like it works
Martingale doubles the bet after every loss, so the first win recovers all the losses plus one base bet. Most sessions therefore end with a small win: with the default inputs, 72.3% of sessions reach the goal. The others meet a losing streak long enough to push the next bet past the table maximum or the bankroll, and that one session loses much more than the small wins brought in.
The average does not change
A betting system cannot change the house edge. On average every system loses about the house edge times the amount bet: −0.71% of the amount bet with martingale and −0.62% with flat bets in the default example – the difference is random noise of the simulation. What a system changes is the shape: how often a session ends ahead and how large the losing sessions are.
1-3-2-6 and other "positive" systems
1-3-2-6 raises the bet after wins and drops back to one unit after any loss, so a losing streak costs only base bets. It risks less than martingale, but every bet still carries the house edge. More on blackjack betting systems.
For flat bets the risk of ruin calculator gives the same race without simulation.
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