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Blackjack risk of ruin calculator
The chance that a flat-betting player loses the whole bankroll before reaching a win goal, at the house edge of your table.
Inputs
Table rules
Flat bets, every hand by the chart. Uses a standard approximation (drift and spread of one hand: house edge from our engine, spread 1.16 bets from our own simulation for 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, 3:2).
Same goal, other bankrolls
| Bankroll | Lose it first | Reach the goal first |
|---|---|---|
| 250 (25 bets) | 55.7% | 44.3% |
| 500 (50 bets) | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| 1,000 (100 bets) | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 2,000 (200 bets) | 23.5% | 76.5% |
What the number means
With a house edge, a player who never stops will lose the bankroll in the end. A win goal turns that into a race: lose the bankroll first, or reach the goal first. A smaller goal or a bigger bankroll (in bets) makes reaching the goal more likely, but the average result stays a loss.
No betting system removes the house edge
The size of your bets changes the odds of this race, but every bet still carries the house edge, and the average result stays a loss. See betting systems.
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