Blackjack Odds: How Often You Win, Push, Bust and Get a Blackjack

With basic strategy and standard online rules, a round ends in a win 43.3% of the time, a push 8.7% and a loss 48.0%, so the house keeps about 0.62% of each bet over many hands. You get a paid blackjack about once every 22 hands, and the dealer busts most often with a 6 showing (43.9%) and least often with an ace (13.9%).

• How Often a Hand Wins, Pushes or Loses
• Why You Lose More Rounds Than You Win
• Dealer Bust Chances by Up Card
• How Often You Get a Paid Blackjack
• What the Odds Mean Over a Session

01How Often a Hand Wins, Pushes or Loses

A round is one deal: you play your hand, then the dealer plays. A push is a tie – you get your bet back (more on push in blackjack).

These shares are for 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, and basic strategy – the chart of best moves for every hand against every dealer up card (the dealer's card you can see). They come from a very large simulation that counts the net result of each round.

You lose more rounds than you win, because you play first and lose right away if you bust. Blackjacks paid at 3:2 and doubled bets pay out more than your bet, so they make up part of the gap, and the average result is a loss of about 0.62% of each bet.

Doubling 11 against a 6 brings back about twice as much as hitting. The chart says double on 11 against every up card; if doubling is not allowed, hit.

Try other hands in the win rate calculator. How rules change the house edge is explained on the blackjack house edge page.

Victoria's tip

Keep the basic strategy chart open while you practice. Every move that is not on the chart lowers your average result.

02Why You Lose More Rounds Than You Win

You play your hand before the dealer. If your total goes over 21, you bust and lose your bet right away.

The dealer can bust later in the same round, but your bet is already gone.

• You bust first, so you lose even when the dealer busts later in the round.
• A blackjack pays you 3:2, while a dealer blackjack only takes your bet.
• You can double down (double your bet and take exactly one more card) and split a pair (two cards of the same value) into two hands. The dealer cannot.
• You can stand on any total. The dealer must hit until reaching 17 or more.

A hard hand has no ace counted as 11. Hard 16 against a dealer 10 loses money on average whatever you do.

A minus sign means you lose that share of your bet on average. Hitting loses a little less, so the chart says hit 16 against a 10.

03Dealer Bust Chances by Up Card

The dealer must hit until reaching 17 or more. On standard rules the dealer also hits soft 17, a 17 that counts an ace as 11.

The ace counts as 11 unless that would bust the hand. Then it counts as 1.

These numbers are for 6 decks with the dealer hitting soft 17, counted before the dealer checks for blackjack. If the dealer stands on soft 17, a 6 busts 42.3% of the time.

With a 2 to 6 showing, the dealer busts most often. That is why the chart tells you to stand on hard 13 against those cards and hit against 7 to A.

You can check other up cards and rules in the dealer bust calculator.

04How Often You Get a Paid Blackjack

A blackjack is an ace plus a ten-value card (10, J, Q or K) as your first two cards.

A paid blackjack comes about once every 22 hands. That is 4.53% of all hands.

Paid means the dealer did not also have a blackjack. When both have one, the hand is a push and you get your bet back.

The picture shows what a 10 bet pays for a blackjack at each ratio.

• 3:2 is the standard payout.
• 6:5 pays less for the same blackjack and raises the house edge from 0.62% to 1.98%.
• 1:1 pays the same as a normal win.

Victoria's tip

Read the table rules before your first hand. If they say blackjack pays 6:5, look for a table that pays 3:2.

05What the Odds Mean Over a Session

The odds above are averages over a very large number of hands. In one session, your result can be far above or far below the average.

The table shows a $10 bet on every hand with basic strategy and standard rules.

After one hundred hands at $10, about 9 sessions in 10 end within $191 of the average. The more hands you play, the smaller your chance of being ahead.

Basic strategy lowers the house edge. It does not remove it, and over many hands the house keeps its share.

Victoria's tip

Play a few thousand hands in the blackjack simulator to see how results swing around the average. If you play for money, set a time and money limit first.

Read the responsible gambling page for help with limits.

Questions people ask